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In just a few weeks from the end of March to the beginning of April, the international oil market experienced another turmoil. As the situation in the Middle East escalated, international oil prices rose to a five-month high.
On April 5, Brent crude oil reached US$91.17/barrel, which was the highest price since October 20 last year and the first time this year to exceed US$90/barrel. The US WTI price reached US$86.91/barrel.
Industry insiders said that the two major international benchmark oil prices formed a "golden cross" pattern in the first week of April, that is, the 50-day moving average exceeded the 200-day moving average. This was a bottoming signal in the early stages of the rise, indicating that the price has Conditions are met for the upside.
On April 10, as market concerns spread, the two major oil prices rose again, with Brent crude oil closing at US$90.48/barrel and U.S. WTI closing at US$86.21/barrel.
As Brent crude oil prices broke through the long-term resistance level of US$90 per barrel, the market became highly concerned about the future trend of oil prices.
Argus, an international energy and commodity price assessment agency, said in an interview with a reporter from China Energy News: "We believe that the two major international benchmark oil prices will further rise. It is expected that the price of Brent crude oil will increase from the average price of US$85.4 per barrel in March. Rising to US$90/barrel, the average price in May will further rise to US$92/barrel.”
Argus believes that Brent crude oil prices will ease in June but will remain above $90 per barrel. However, if the additional production cuts agreed by "OPEC+" in November last year begin to gradually return to the market in the third quarter of this year, the rise in Brent crude oil prices will begin to slow down in July.
ANZ analysis said that due to the improvement of the economic situation, coupled with continued tight supply and rising geopolitical risks, oil prices are expected to rise further in the short term, and has raised its Brent crude oil price forecast to US$95 per barrel.
Morgan Stanley raised Brent crude oil prices to US$92/barrel in the second quarter and to US$94/barrel in the third quarter based on new changes in the geopolitical situation.
In response to the external pressure on upward oil prices, Argus emphasized that the uncertain factors hindering the rise in oil prices include rising inflation delaying interest rate cuts by central banks, global crude oil demand growth lower than previously forecast, continued growth in U.S. crude oil production this year, and geopolitical tensions.
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