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The geopolitical situation at the beginning of the week affected crude oil supply, crude oil futures in Europe and the United States rose to a near 4-month high, and PX supply and demand expectations improved, superposition oil expectations rose, and short-term PX trend was strong, further pushing up the PTA market. However, due to the sufficient supply of PTA supplies, the downstream polyester factory is not good at receiving goods, and the decline in crude oil futures, the fundamentals are weak and the cost support is weakened, and the PTA price has fallen. The average price of PTA in East China was 5813 yuan/ton as of March 22, down 1.99% from the beginning of the week. Therefore, the cost support of polyester staple fiber has weakened.
The downstream pure polyester yarn market is stable, and the sales are relatively flat. As of March 22, 2024, the reference price of pure polyester yarn market in Shandong region remained stable at 12375 yuan/ton, and the polyester staple fiber was mainly purchased. The shipment status of terminal grey cloth in domestic market is good, and the volume of new orders in export market is average. The rebound rate of terminal loading and weaving opening is slow, and the weaving opening rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is more than 70% at present.
In the future, the cost side is still good, and geopolitical risks may further push up the price of crude oil. At the same time, PX centralized maintenance in Asia in the second quarter and the demand side of PTA is expected to increase the focus of PX prices will continue to rise. However, PTA supply is sufficient and inventory is still at a high level, and PTA is expected to continue to weaken the market. Polyester staple fiber started high finishing, sufficient supply of goods, demand season is less than expected, the actual downstream inquiries and orders are limited. Weakened cost support and its own oversupply is expected to weaken the price of polyester staple fiber.
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