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Demand feedback helps polyester rebound
Following the rapid growth of "double 11" winter textile sales in 2023, "Double 12" also ushered in a round of replenishment market due to the sudden drop in temperature and other reasons, and the amount of double orders of winter fabrics has increased; The "snow and ice economy" of the New Year's Day holiday also catalyzed the sales growth of outdoor sports goods to a certain extent; At the same time, near the end of the year, there were signs of a pick-up in foreign trade orders, and textile inventories ushered in a more obvious reduction.
Throughout the polyester fiber, although synchronous in the middle of December 2023 polyester bottomed out, consistent with the second round of textile demand trigger time, however, the main reason for the rise of polyester fiber from the cost side, raw material - ethylene glycol due to supply disturbance caused by the price continues to rise, the cost of polyester products are driven by varying degrees of rise. The positive feedback on the demand side has become the second reason under the market, helping the price of polyester products to rebound, of which the polyester filament in the low inventory has a relatively large increase.
From the seasonal consumption point of view, the textile industry usually ushered in the first half of the demand small peak season, when the spring and summer orders will be fully issued, as well as the end of 2023 foreign trade orders pick up, will also boost the demand for the 2024 small peak season. Therefore, considering the late Spring Festival holiday in 2024, the weaving industry is expected to resume work in succession at the end of February, and the opening probability is expected to gradually increase, and it is expected to recover to near 70% in mid-early March.
Entering the countdown to the Spring Festival, polyester and downstream equipment maintenance news is frequent, although the surge in overseas orders in local areas is heard, it is difficult to conceal the fact that the industry's opening probability is declining, as the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, polyester and terminal opening probability still has a declining trend.
Throughout the past three years, the capacity utilization rate of the polyester filament industry is in the process of gradual recovery after the trough period, especially since the second quarter of 2023, the industry capacity utilization rate has stabilized at the level of 80%, slightly lower than the capacity utilization level of the same period of polyester, but compared with 2022, the capacity utilization rate has increased by nearly 7 percentage points. However, since December 2023, the capacity utilization rate of polyester multi-varieties led by polyester filament has declined. According to statistics, in December, polyester filament reduction and stop devices totaled 5 sets, involving a production capacity of more than 1.3 million tons, and before and after the Spring Festival, there are still more than 10 sets of devices planned to stop and repair, involving a production capacity of more than 2 million tons.
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