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Weak demand under the macro bearish international cotton prices fell
The international market, the United States macro negative pressure market confidence, cotton demand prospects are not good, with a large number of new cotton listed, the market into the seasonal decline channel, the international cotton price shock down. However, the United States cotton production for two consecutive years, is expected to still have some support for ICE cotton prices, but the current market is mainly concerned about demand. From the consumer side, the global economy is relatively weak this year, the overall market's consumption power is insufficient, the New Year's US cotton swab sales progress is relatively slow, and pessimistic market sentiment has put pressure on prices.
Icacoctober data forecast that 2023/24 global cotton production 24.98 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons, an increase of 1.46%; Consumption of 23.31 million tons, a decrease of 140,000 tons; The supply and demand relationship expanded from 1.17 million tons of production over demand last year to 1.67 million tons this year; The ending inventory was 22.92 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous quarter and an increase of 1.68 million tons year-on-year. The ratio of ending inventory consumption to 98.33%, down 0.68 percentage points from the previous quarter and up 7.75 percentage points year-on-year.
The downstream finished product inventory accumulation consumer market is insufficient
This year, the gold nine silver ten season is not prosperous is a foregone conclusion, the market sentiment is more pessimistic, cotton yarn significantly under pressure, prices continue to weaken, the textile industry as a whole operating situation is poor. There is a risk of high inventory in the cotton yarn market, and the total industrial and commercial inventory of cotton yarn is about 1.55 to 1.75 million tons, 450,000 to 650,000 tons more than the highest level in history; On the other hand, 180,000 tons of cotton yarn was imported in September, an increase of 100% year-on-year, and the pressure appeared. Pure cotton grey cloth market trading atmosphere is still weak, as raw material prices fall, the downstream price reduction phenomenon is widespread, weaving factory losses are larger. At present, most orders in the weaving factory are early orders, home textile orders are basically finished, spring and summer orders are still unclear, and the market mentality is weak. Follow-up orders are more difficult to connect, and the weaving factory continues to lower its start-up.
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