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China is a major cotton producer and main seller, as well as a major cotton country and a major cotton textile and garment country. It occupies an important position in the world's cotton raw materials and finished products trade. Cotton is an important strategic material related to my country's national economy and people's livelihood. It has a long industrial chain and a large population. Such a huge market requires risk management tools to serve the stable operation of industrial enterprises, improve the resilience and strength of the entire industry, and promote the continuous maturity of the industry. The birth of cotton futures is precisely given such a role.
From the data point of view, the cotton futures market has continued to expand in the past 16 years, from an average of 20,000 lots in 2004 to over 500,000 lots in 2020. Among them, in 2011, the annual transaction volume of cotton futures reached 139 million hands, ranking second in the global commodity futures transaction volume.
Since 2014, my country has begun to implement cotton target price reform, the degree of cotton marketization has continued to increase, and the activity of cotton futures has further increased. Taking this year's data as an example, in the first half of 2020, cotton futures traded a total of 54.413 million lots, with an average daily turnover of 465,100 lots, a year-on-year increase of 115.24%; an average daily open interest of 591,300 lots, a year-on-year increase of 61.99%. In addition, cotton industry enterprises actively participate in the futures market. In 2019, the number of cotton futures legal person customers exceeded 6,200, and the percentage of positions held exceeded 50% throughout the year. In 2019/2020 alone, the cumulative number of registered warehouse receipts for cotton futures was 33,980, equivalent to 1.427 million tons of cotton, accounting for about 1/4 of my country's annual cotton output.
Industry insiders believe that active trading in the cotton futures market provides a basis for the effective function of price discovery and risk aversion. Cotton-related companies are deeply integrated into the futures market. Upstream processing companies, traders, and downstream textile companies have all used the authoritative prices of the futures market to guide production, processing, and trade operations to varying degrees.
Since the start of the cotton target price reform, the volatility of cotton spot market prices has gradually increased, and cotton-related enterprises have increased their demand for hedging risks in the futures market. With its price discovery function, cotton futures have provided a powerful tool for industrial entities to avoid risks. Cotton futures provides industry enterprises with timely reference information to help them effectively avoid market risks. Futures prices have become the industry's vane.
It is understood that since the listing of cotton futures, its price trend has always maintained a high degree of correlation with the China Cotton Price Index CCIdex3128B. Especially since 2014, the correlation between futures and current prices has remained above 0.9, and the price discovery function has been efficiently performed. When the market supply and demand are unbalanced and industrial policies change, cotton futures prices can respond accurately and quickly, and scientifically judge for market entities. The cotton market situation provides an effective reference and becomes a "barometer" reflecting the supply and demand situation of the cotton industry.
Huang Hongyu, president of Henan Tongzhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd., told the Futures Daily reporter that cotton futures have become the basis for spot trading. Spot companies have extensively carried out point price trading and basis trading based on futures prices to stabilize the cost of raw materials and product prices, and improve enterprises. Business Benefits. "In Xinjiang's main producing areas, the basis trading model combining futures and stocks has gradually replaced the traditional'Buy It Now' trading model and has become the mainstream of the cotton trade market."
With the continuous maturity of cotton futures, the international influence of its prices is gradually increasing. On the one hand, cotton futures prices are closely linked to the international market. In 2019, the cotton futures price correlation coefficient between ZCE and the Intercontinental Exchange was 0.91. The cotton futures price is very sensitive to factors affecting the international market, and the influence of the Chinese cotton market on the international cotton market is also increasing. On the other hand, the market size is close to the international futures market. In 2019, after weight conversion, ZCE's cotton futures open interest has reached 0.7 times the intercontinental exchange's cotton futures open interest, and the trading volume is 1.77 times.
In addition, major international cotton merchants such as Louis Dreyfus and Oran have participated in the ZCE cotton futures for a long time. These companies use diversified methods to use the price indicators and risk management functions of the futures market to serve their spot trading. The daily average holdings of the two companies, Louis Dreyfus and Olam, are both in the top 10 positions in the ranking of the average daily holdings of the ZCE cotton corporate legal person. In this regard, some analysts also believe that a good futures and spot basis has created favorable conditions for promoting cotton futures to better exert their price influence in the international market. This is even more extraordinary for a huge market of the entire industry chain like China. Meaning.
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