Internationally, last week, the energy and grain markets strengthened, the US dollar was slightly lower, and the US cotton futures continued to rebound. The US cotton weekly export data is strong, helping the US cotton main force to recover 70 cents/pound line. However, Brazil's high yield is expected to maintain a high global cotton production, weak global demand has not changed, 24/25 global cotton supply and demand expectations are loose, cotton price upside is suppressed.

Domestically, the supply of new cotton has accelerated, downstream demand has weakened, and cotton prices have continued to weaken. Overall, due to the progress of cotton processing and inspection is much faster than in previous years, the current domestic cotton supply is loose, while downstream demand is seasonally weaker, and cotton prices are expected to continue weak fluctuations.

Last week, the volume of new cotton on the market increased, and the main price of Zheng cotton was weak.

On the supply side, 24/25 new cotton production exceeded expectations, and the processing volume increased significantly year-on-year. The new cotton harvest is coming to an end, the acquisition cost is solidified, and the short-term hedge fund is suppressed and rebounded.

On the demand side, the peak season is over, downstream demand is falling back, the cotton mill is working normally, and the purchase is just needed on the dip. The overall supply is strong and weak, and the cotton price is short of upward drive. In terms of the downstream textile market, the characteristics of the market off-season are obvious, the inventory of finished products has accumulated, and the price difference of yarn and cotton has been further narrowed, according to the feedback of cotton textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, Shandong and other places, the recent new orders have been reduced from the previous period, cotton yarn shipments have slowed down, and enterprise spinning profits are insufficient, resulting in tight cash flow.

Due to the low stock of raw materials, the Spring Festival holiday is early, and attention is paid to the boost of downstream advance replenishment to orders. In the short and medium term, the possibility of Zheng-cotton breaking before low is basically zero, and the internal value is supported by the purchase price of seed cotton. On the basic level, this year's seed cotton picking and sales are faster than the same period last year, the arrival of the downstream off-season, the probability of textile factory opening has fallen to a three-month low. Zheng Mian 2501 contract 13800-14500 yuan between the bottom probability is large, before the end of the year to see whether there can be a stock expected difference.

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