On Friday, oil prices jumped nearly $4 in just two hours, before giving up all of those gains and refreshing the day's lows. For crude oil, the unilateral market of $5 a day is not uncommon, but such a single day extreme reversal plot is very rare, this volatility usually breakdown the risk control bottom line of most investors who do the wrong direction, even experienced and well-informed veterans for this market is also lamented.

When Israel finally struck on Friday, the initial adrenaline rush on the news amplified the volatility in oil prices and in financial markets as a whole. Oil prices jumped nearly $4 in two hours, but then the market realized again that this was another highly theatrical event, and the jitters quickly dissipated with the Iranian announcement.

From the observation of the Israeli retaliation on April 19 and the statements of all parties, although it can be expected that the friction will still be repeated, and the risk of conflict can not be completely ruled out, but from the current development of the situation, this probability is decreasing with the passage of time, and the oil price has fallen by $4.5 from the day's high.

Pressurized polyester raw material

The current situation is that polyester factories are afraid of high inventory, suffer from inventory pressure, and weaving companies are afraid of high prices and are unwilling to pay for high prices.

The most important factor supporting the high price of raw materials at this stage is the high crude oil, some institutions pointed out that before more than 90 US dollars of crude oil, there is about 10 US dollars of risk premium. With geopolitical conflicts easing slightly in the short term, some of this risk premium is slowly disappearing.

At present, the current inventory of polyester filament is relatively high, near 30 days, but considering the current downstream weaving probability has increased to more than 70%, after the downstream construction in March, the rigid demand exists in March to April, which supports the short-term polyester filament factory temporarily not affected by inventory oppression, but it needs to be considered that the demand gradually turns to the off-season, and every May Day holiday, and the downstream or partial production reduction is expected. As well as poor new orders, lack of confidence in downstream construction, whether there is a production cut expectation in the future, and weak demand expectations will become the main pressure source of future inventory increase.

Because they are not willing to pay for high prices, downstream users at this stage need to replenish demand, and production and sales remain depressed. However, once the price of crude oil loosens and polyester factories open promotions, polyester production and sales are expected to break out.

But the impact of geopolitical factors has only been temporarily alleviated, and it could return at any time, so how high will oil go?

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